Artem Voloskovets
Kalshi’s market tracking how low Bitcoin will trade during September currently assigns a 55% probability that BTC falls below $75,000 before the end of the month. Traders price a 34% chance of a drop below $72,500 and a 22% chance of falling below $70,000.
This makes the $74,000–$75,000 area a realistic downside scenario, rather than a prediction that Bitcoin will necessarily close September at that level. Kalshi contracts measure whether BTC touches a specified price at any point during the month.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $78,300, after reaching a three-month high above $82,000 last week. That puts $74,000 roughly 5.5% below current levels.
Technical levels are also becoming important. Reuters analysis identifies $75,674 and $71,781 as key downside levels. A sustained break below them could increase the risk of a deeper move toward roughly $62,700. Conversely, a break above the $82,800 area could reopen the path toward $90,000.
For now, Kalshi pricing suggests traders remain cautious despite Bitcoin’s recent rebound. The next major catalysts include U.S. inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s September 16 rate decision, both of which could significantly affect risk assets including cryptocurrencies.
Artem Voloskovets
